I had a discussion earlier this morning about the viability of Sarah Palin as a serious 2012 Presidential candidate.  It’s no secret that I believe she stands about as much chance at winning the Republican nomination (much less actually beating President Obama) as Betty White did running that slant pattern in that Snickers Superbowl Commercial.  Sarah Palin is an idiot.  People that support her, are idiots.  Yes, idiots can vote but so do people who believe in UFO’s and wear tin-foil hats.  The fact is that while idiots do vote, the number of idiots that support Sarah Palin are vastly outnumbered by even the idiots that would vote for Ronald Reagan’s corpse.  It is amazing to me in a time when three Republican women are running for high profile offices, people are talking about this moron with no political chance.  It’s actually quite tragic and in a way almost sexist.  Alan Keyes, Ron Paul and other nut case conservative guys don’t get the same coverage as Palin.  They all appeal to and attract the same small minority in this country.  A part of me thinks it’s an attempt to keep viable republican women out of the spot light.  But I digress…

Let’s start with some reasons why Sarah Palin doesn’t stand a chance:

Being Loud Doesn’t Equal Being a Threat
I think people have short term memories.  Sarah Palin drew crowds when she was announced as John McCain’s running mate.  She had one of the highest rated (in terms of viewers) Convention speeches ever.  She drew more people to rallies than John McCain and he was at the top of the ticket.  Yet McCain/Palin got their electoral asses whooped.  Americans love watching train wrecks and Sarah Palin is the biggest one we have.  I concede the fact that Sarah Palin attracts a part of the Republican base.  The issue is, how big is that base.  Most of the people she attracts are the same ones who think President Obama is some one-man Muslim sleeper cell.  I’d be interested in seeing a breakdown geographically of where most of these Tea Party people come from.  If they come from Red States, the the truth is…Sarah Palin’s base is only in places where she should already do well.  Most educated Republicans/Conservatives think Sarah Palin is an idiot and wouldn’t vote for her.  Towards the end of the 2008 campaign several of them broke ranks and expressed just how ridiculous it was that Palin could possibly be Vice President.  Considering Sarah Palin has shown absolutely zero political maturity since then, barring a complete 180, these same moderate Republicans aren’t going to support Palin in 2012.  That means you have Democrats, moderate Republicans and some Independents versus Republicans who think Sarah Palin is good for America.  The numbers just don’t add up for Palin.

She’s a One-Trick Pony
I touched on this above but I’ll say it again.  Sarah Palin hasn’t grown as a political candidate since John McCain introduced her in September of 2008.  The only thing she’s shown is that she can consistently string together talking points in a speech.  She can’t break them down policy-wise and give solutions.  Nope. That’s still beyond her abilities.  She didn’t follow the advice of seasoned political advisers who suggested she take 6 months, do a “Policy Bootcamp” and come back on the scene. Nope.  She didn’t do that.  The Sarah Palin of 2010 is the same 2008 Sarah Palin ( except now she’s a quitter).  So if Palin is the same, then her base is the same.  Her base in 2008 wasn’t enough to win an election, how the hell can she do it in 2012?  There aren’t any new “Sarah Palin fans”.  People who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 might not be thrilled with his first year but they haven’t jumped all the way over to supporting Sarah Palin.  The Presidency isn’t based off of who can be the loudest (Or we’d have President Kerry right now to be honest).  You need more than a rabid base.  You need substance.  Sarah Palin doesn’t have it.

She’s Not George W. Bush
I can admit, citing “Because she’s an idiot” is an oversimplified reason for why Sarah Palin doesn’t have a chance.  I mean George W. Bush was an idiot and he got 2 terms, is it really that far fetched to believe Sarah Palin could go the same route?  The answer is….YES.  I’m about to do something that I’ve never done before and I’m going to defend George W. Bush.  Sure, compared to President Obama, President Bush is that slacker that sits in the back of the college classroom on daddy’s dime getting “Gentlemen’s C’s”.  But regardless of how he got there or how well he did, Bush went to Yale which is a far cry from the 4 -5 schools Sarah Palin bounced around in.  Not only does this differentiate the two education wise but also with their connections with powerful players that ANYONE running for a President would need to have.  Bush also got to where he is because his father was President.  That means Bush Jr. had access to people that already knew how to run a national campaign and how to manipulate local support into a national movement.  Palin DOES NOT have this.  The people she had helping her as a potential VP candidate in 2008 were not her own.  They were McCain’s people and after the election most if not all of them abandoned her.  This has been underplayed in the media, Palin is a ratings machine for the media so of course they don’t talk about it, but Palin is on her own.  She cannot launch a National campaign on that at all.  Todd Palin is probably her chief political adviser and that’s just a disaster waiting to happen.  The final thing that separates George W. Bush from Sarah Palin?  Bush was a successful, popular, 2-term Governor of the second largest state in the country.  Palin on the other hand, was the half term Governor of one of the small states in the country and her poll numbers plummeted after she started gaining national recognition.  Not only did she only serve half a term but she QUIT on her responsibilities.  That alone basically ensures she doesn’t get out of the Republican primary.

She’s a Quitter and a Whiner
Again, I mentioned this before but I feel it needed to be mentioned again.  This goes beyond Sarah Palin quitting on the people of Alaska.  That alone is bad enough to keep her out of serious contention in 2012, but it’s more than that.  Read the accounts of McCain staffers (most of which is confirmed by actual emails from Palin).  Palin throws temper tantrums like a little child when things don’t go her way.  She’s that kid that picks up the ball and goes home because the other kids didn’t pass her the ball enough.  Most of her speeches don’t allow media coverage because she doesn’t want to deal with being held accountable for what she says.  She only goes on Fox News or Oprah.  Sorry but that doesn’t cut it.  If she runs for President, she won’t be able to quit.  She won’t be able to deny media access to her events.  Right now Palin hasn’t shown the ability to approach politics as a serious endeavor.  Instead she treats it like a pop star treats the paparazzi.

The Rudy Giuliani Effect
Last but not least, Palin faces what I’ve dubbed “The Giuliani Effect”.  Rudy is loved by Conservatives, well known across the country….and got his ass whooped in the republican primaries last time.  Why?  Because while republicans did like him…most realized he had absolutely no substance outside of 9/11.   While I talk about how idiots are overrunning this country, I must say that politics still has a little bit of self correcting abilities left.  People are stupid but they aren’t THAT stupid.  Most of the time when it comes to election day, the voter simply asks themselves “Who is going to make my life better?”  Sure, some people will vote for Palin just because shes a republican or because she’s a woman…but the same can be said about the other side as well.  Those two groups cancel each other out.  Most people though, ask themselves seriously who will be better for their lives.  People might not be thrilled with President Obama but is that enough to make them go to a woman who brings absolutely nothing to the table?  Moderate Republicans and Independents want more than one-word answers or buzzwords like “Freedom”, “Drill Here Drill Now” and“Protect America”.  They want real solutions.  Sarah Palin offers none of her own.  This is not my opinion, that is just fact. Sure, like Rudy Giuliani it makes for feisty and confrontational speeches that the media likes to cover, but in the end, there’s nothing for the majority of voters to latch onto.  Also like Giuliani, Palin also only goes to friendly locations with her message.  A Tea Party Convention in Tennessee and campaigning for Rick Perry in Texas isn’t exactly winning over new voters for Palin.  When she polls well with independents in Iowa, then we can talk.  Otherwise, she’s the female version of Rudy Giuliani.  An attack dog on a very short leash.

I understand the saying goes “Never underestimate your opponent” and while that makes for a great phrase on fortune cookies, the political truth is…you can’t feed the frenzy of the nutcases.  Some (emphasis on SOME) of the concerns of the Tea Party movement are valid.  But Sarah Palin cannot articulate any of their concerns into legitimate policy changes.  She simply does not have the knowledge or the political skill to do so.  One line zingers and talking points can only take person so far (Again, see Rudy Guiliani for proof).  Conservatives tolerate her now because she can generate them money but you better believe that if she tried to run a national race they’d shut her down in a heart beat.  And if she somehow managed to get past them…she’d still have to go one-on-one with the president and I’m sorry, she stands no chance.  The President will prepare for whoever the Republican nominee is.  If it’s Sarah Palin, due to her lack of insight on any major policy issue, the majority of this country will vote for a second term for President Obama.  I’m sorry but there’s no convincing me otherwise.  She doesn’t have the votes and she never will.